The 2012 election has been a very fractious election, keenly watched for a possible outcome for a very long time. There were a large number of polls tracking the potential outcome and analysts tracking the polls. Nate Silver has rightly won kudos for getting it right a second time. Silver's model is heavily driven by data from opinion polls and has a very high temporal resolution. On the other hand, Lichtman's model is simpler and based on 13 Keys which are not linked to the impact of campaigns on opinion polls; the assessment of the 13 keys is a matter of judgment. Both are covered in the following posts.
Friday, November 9, 2012
The Why and How of This Blog
Welcome to the Why and How of Things. This will be a wide ranging collection of items with the sole objective of understanding why things are what they are. We will look at all sorts of issues. Analysing the past and present lets us think about the future. We will be looking at techniques, methodologies, models, data and examples of application of the ideas. While mathematics is the core of many models, we will focus on the real world applications of concepts, without getting bogged down with the intricate maths.
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